The new Labour government has made growth of the British economy a primary objective to provide a basis for national renewal. The November budget raised taxes by £40 billion to cover gaps in existing spending (a claimed £22 billion) and changed debt criteria to create headroom for capital investment for growth. But at present, even with this added investment, forecasts for growth after two years from the Office for Budget Responsibility remain stubbornly low. Low growth seems embedded as a long-term trend for the British economy, spanning changes in political leadership, rather than a cyclical downturn. Business as usual for the UK does not seem likely to lead to a major shift. Recognising this, the government has issued a green paper on modern industrial strategy, is about to announce an ambitious AI strategy, and is exploring how to reset trade relations with the EU.
But how to deliver these ambitions remains a challenge, particularly in a context of geopolitical competition and the election of President Trump. This Ditchley conference will explore the UK’s options. What can we do to grow the economy in a period of not only geopolitical competition between the US and China but also likely stark divergence between the US and the European Union on many economic issues? What can we do to take advantage of the still accelerating technological revolution? How can we combine ambitions for growth with an effective green transition with one powering the other? We will be looking for insights on what can get the UK moving in the short term and transformative ideas with a longer time scale.
Terms of Reference
Programme
Ditchley Rule:
Participants are reminded of the confidential basis on which Ditchley conferences are held. All those participating do so in their personal capacities, not as spokespeople for any country or institution. The discussions are subject to the ‘Ditchley Rule’: all contributions are unattributable and interventions are made in strict confidence; this also applies to conversations outside the formal sessions. Those present are, however, free to draw on the substance of what has been said, but not under any circumstances to disclose who it was that said it. The Rule will be scrupulously observed in any post-conference reports.
Attire:
Ditchley conferences are informal (business casual) throughout, except for dinner on the second evening. It is a Ditchley tradition that dress for the formal dinner on the second evening is Black Tie. However, this is not at all a requirement - please be assured that you will feel entirely comfortable in a business suit or another form of evening attire, whether modern or traditional. It is worth noting that, although Sir David Wills, the founder of the Ditchley Foundation, instigated the tradition of Black Tie dinners, he never wore Black Tie himself. He wanted to ensure that no one would feel uncomfortable if they had not come with formal clothes. That captures the Ditchley spirit.